A failure of trust in global financial markets lies at the heart not just of the current recession but prospects for a sustained recovery in spending and jobs. Whilst journalists play the game of alphabet soup to describe the likely shape of the economic cycle, we might be better off thinking in terms of a Nike Swoosh. World growth is responding to an unprecedented policy stimulus but there is a real danger that the rebound inactivity will be constrained by a set of negative forces pushing down on growth. This was the message from Paul Donovan, Managing Director of Global Economics for UBS in his presentation to the Eton College Keynes Society last night.

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David Blanchflower writes in the new Autumn edition of the RSA’s Journal about the help needed to avert an unemployment time bomb especially for younger workers. This piece builds on his recent talk at the RSA. It is a superb article and has some powerful sections on the economic and social consequences of high rates of unemployment.

Our latest weekly Economics in the News Quiz is available to try here

The Founder and CEO of King of Shaves, Will King gave an engaging and dynamic presentation to a large audience of economics and business students at our Entrepreneurship Society last night. The UK sales figures for the new Azor razors are quite remarkable and are testimony to the impact that this challenger brand is having on a monopolistic/duopolistic market. In the past four weeks in the UK KoS has sold 107,000+ Azor system razor handles and 602,000+ Azor Endurium cartridges.

Conventional MBA theory would suggest that the barriers to entry are just too high for a new firm to dislocate and disrupt the cosy market power of Gillette and Wilkinson Sword. The razor remains of the most patent protected products in the world and the billions of blades sold each year (at a margin in excess of 90 per cent) represent an enormous cash-flow monster for the US shaving giants. But easy cash can often stifle genuine creativity. The momentum of passionate and persistent challenger brands who truly understand the web and who talk to customers in a different way can make a big difference. The big Mo is with King of Shaves and it is easy to see why!

Our next meeting (Thursday 12th November) focuses on global economics and is with Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS.

Here is an excellent highly relevant article on cooperative behaviour between oligopolistic giants. Two of the world’s biggest drugs companies GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer have announced a plan to merge their HIV treatments in a joint venture. ViiV Healthcare is an attempt for both companies to limit the risks of costly races to find new profitable treatments for HIV/aids and give them an opportunity to counter the loss of the revenues as these companies lose patent protection and are open to competition from generic drug makers. It is a strong reminder of the very high fixed costs of research into new drugs; the long lead times between new drug development, testing and finally getting it to the market. And also the impact of the entry of generic drugs into markets once patent protection runs out. The new company has a 19% share of the global drugs market, in comparison to the Californian company Gilead’s 31%.

Drug firms’ collaboration pools HIV treatments (Independent)

IPO of HIV business is ‘up to shareholders’ (Telegraph)